Where there's a Will, there's a way

Once in a while when I'm talking with people about the latest poll numbers or news about the Presidential primary I'll find myself saying, "that's exactly what I said was going to happen several months ago, remember?" So today, for the admittedly petty reason to have evidence that I was correct down the road, I'm going to make my predictions about the primary election.

After watching the weekly Sunday morning political shows I feel validated in my opinions because most of the national television political pundits are obviously morons. They don't know how to look at anything other than the latest poll numbers and fundraising totals. At least Obama's excellent fundraising totals in the last quarter forced the national media to temper its cult-like obession with Hillary by introducing a little more talk about Barack. But I still saw every pundit on Meet the Press declare that they believe Clinton will win the nomination. Fools!

I never thought Hillary Clinton had a chance because people are desperate for a leader who shows conviction, not someone who always takes the "popular" strategic stance based on what swing voters supposedly want. Democratic Primary voters are burned out on Clinton-esque straddling. That's why the approval ratings for Congress have dropped even lower recently. The Rahm Emanuel strategy of playing it safe and moderate on the Iraq War issue managed to alienate most of the Democratic Party base without winning over independents either.

The frustration anti-war Democrats feel that the party is spinelessly failing to fulfil the mandate of the voters will further damage Clinton's campaign because she is the least credible in her opposition to the war. What Bush/Rove showed in '04 is that people want to vote for someone who they believe will stand by their convictions, even if they disagree with the candidate's convictions or don't know what they are.

Polling data shows Hillary's lead slowing fading over time. Polls will fluctuate back and forth, but that general trend will continue. Of course, national polls are almost meaningless since we don't have a national primary, which makes the other trend I've noticed important. Hillary's early lead shrunk much faster in the first few primary states where people are paying more attention and the campaigns are spending more time.

What all of that means is that as voters learn more about the candidates (rather than basing their preference on the first like-able name they recognize) Hillary loses support. It also means Hillary has more ground to lose in February and March primary states where the campaigns haven't heated up yet.

The first four primary states this year are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. I think Obama and Edwards have the advantage over Clinton in Iowa and South Carolina. Polls differ but most of them show Obama, Clinton and Edwards very close in both states. John Edwards will build on his 2004 good showing in Iowa and victory in South Carolina. Barack Obama will continue to win more black voters over from Hillary in South Carolina, and will benefit from Illinois volunteers helping in Iowa. Hillary will finish third in both states.

As an Obama supporter, I hope Hillary is still running first in the national polls right up until the Iowa Caucus. A third place finish in Iowa will be absolutely devastating to a "frontrunner" campaign, as it was for Dean in '04, and the media pundits will have to once again admit that they are wrong to misguidedly declare anyone a frontrunner a year before a single vote is cast.

Clinton has a better shot at winning New Hampshire, but she won't be able to recover from failing to meet expectations as a front runner after third place finishes in Iowa and South Carolina. She'll have the money to stay in the race into March, dragging along, before finally admitting defeat. The final nail in the coffin could be Clinton only narrowly defeating Obama in Arkansas. In fact, Clinton will have a real fight for Arkansas if Obama gets ACORN's endorsement.

Currently, this is a two-way race between Obama and Edwards.

All of that will change in the unlikely event that Al Gore enters the race. I believe a Gore candidacy is Clinton's best chance at winning the nomination. Much of Gore's support will come from liberals who would otherwise vote for Obama or Edwards. By splitting the progressive vote three ways, Gore would allow Hillary to win with the 20-30% of Democrats who are strongly dedicated to her. Gore can't win unless Edwards, Clinton or Obama were to drop out before the Iowa Caucus and I can't imagine a scenario where that happens.

Regarding the others, Bill Richardson will continue to get more and better press coverage than the other second-tier candidates. If he ever becomes a top-tier candidate his negatives will quickly tank his campaign when faced with tougher media scrutiny. He'll have to drop out if he doesn't perform in Nevada.

Chris Dodd will drop out before Iowa. He's taken much more seriously in the Senate (as he should be) than he is on the campaign trail. It isn't fun for someone with his stature to be an also-ran.

Dennis Kucinich will continue to have a major impact on the national debate but will also continue to receive no recognition for that in the national media regardless of what happens with his poll numbers or fundraising. Kucinich supporters are right to complain that the corporate media doesn't want to seriously address many of the issues he raises, but the biggest obstacles to his success will be self-inflicted wounds, just like last time.

Joe Biden will make another idiotic, offensive comment or two and the few people taking him seriously will remember why the rest of us don't.

Those are my predictions. In the months ahead I'll either say "I knew it!" when something comes true or those of you reading can remind me how wrong I was. Sometime soon I'll write about the Republican primary.