2008 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions
A post about Presidential election predictions over at BFS inspired me to write the promised Republican side of my predictions about the Democratic Presidential primary.
The early Republican race is interesting because the three front runners (McCain, Romney, and Giuliani) all have reputations for being relatively moderate. That's not surprising because the main qualification for a winning Republican candidate in the general election is to be associated as little as possible with George Bush and the decision to invade Iraq. The last thing Republicans want is for their party to be held responsible for Bush's mistakes and unpopularity. That's why you don't see Condi Rice or any other administration figures in the race.
That's why its so puzzling that John McCain ruined his reputation by veering toward the right, clinging to George Bush, and becoming one of the most ardent supporters of the Iraq War. Independent voters no longer see him as a moderate maverick and conservatives still haven't accepted him as one of their own. I don't see how McCain can remake himself again without further eroding his reputation as a straight shooter.
Mitt Romney is an excellent candidate in many ways. He can raise money, he's a blue-state Governor that hasn't been in Washington participating in the messes of the last six years, and he's good on TV. As Massachusetts governor he has been getting news coverage in the New Hampshire media market for years. A large Mormon population in Nevada might give him an edge in that early primary state as well.
The problem with Mitt is that he will never win a single Southern primary state. I think a lot of political pundits don't understand the extent to which people in some denominations, the Southern Baptists in particular, have been taught for decades that Mormonism is a bizarre, non-Christian cult. It wasn't that long ago that the Southern Baptists held their national convention in Salt Lake City for the explicit purpose of telling Mormons that they belong to a cult and are going to hell.
This election might be what finally wakes up Mormons in heavily Republican Utah and Idaho to the fact that while the Christian Coalition movement will accept their votes, it still doesn't accept Mormons as peers. Unfortunately for Romney, you can't win the Republican nomination without carrying any Southern states, where the Southern Baptist Church is the most powerful political institution.
The irony for Romney is that the prejudices he exploits against those with "non-traditional" values when he attacks gays, are the same prejudices that will stop him from winning the nomination because of his own "non-traditional" religious beliefs. The politics of division cuts both ways.
Rudy Giuliani will have trouble winning over the conservative evangelical vote for different reasons. I'm skeptical that he'll win the nomination but I give him a better chance than McCain or Romney.
When I think about Giuliani I think of all the power that Bush has concentrated into the Executive Branch. Then I imagine that extra-constitutional power in the hands of someone like Giuliani who showed strong tendencies toward abuse of power and nanny-state control as Mayor of New York, along with his willingness to exploit a national tragedy for his own personal political benefit. That's a recipe for Italy circa 1924.
That leaves conservatives looking for a candidate. Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter will never gain traction because they won't have support from the biggest Republican donors. The most important Republican donors care about economic issues like corporate deregulation and special tax breaks. They'll support one of their own like George Bush who gives lip service to conservative religious voters, but they don't want a true believer like Brownback.
Thus we have the rise of Fred Thompson who I believe would give Republicans the best chance at victory. Thompson was still a Senator when I lived in Tennessee and I had the chance to meet with him and his staff a few times. A few observations about Thompson:
1) He's primarily a Chamber of Commerce conservative that doesn't scare people away like Brownback does. He can act and sound like a reasonable moderate when he wants to, which is what someone needs to do if they're going to be conservative enough to win the nomination yet appeal to independents in the general election.
2) He understands the appeal of populism. That's why he rented a red pickup truck for his Senate campaign to drive around Tennessee. Sure, it was contrived, but it worked. Reagan playing cowboy on his ranch was contrived too but people bought it.
3) Obviously, he's a polished speaker and performer. I wonder if Bill O'Reilly will keep complaining about "Hollywood elites" if Republicans become the party of Rondald Reagan, Fred Thompson, and Arnold Schwarzenegger? Probably.
4) He has a few issues where he's more moderate, including environmental issues. Bashing tree-huggers works on talk radio but most voters want a President who protects the environment. Thompson, like all Republicans from Tennessee, was compelled to support environmental initiatives that benefit the Smoky Mountains National Park. That kept him from compiling an extremist record against the environment like so many in his party.
5) He meets the essential criteria of having been out of Washington for the last five years so he has nothing to do with George Bush and the War in Iraq. Again, this will be an election where the Republican nominee will try to wipe the slate clean and accept no responsibility for Bush's mistakes.
I don't know if Republicans will nominate Thompson but he's the candidate Democrats will have the most trouble defeating.
Mike Huckabee might have half a chance of attracting conservative voters if Fred Thompson doesn't enter the race. I'm tempted to say that there's no chance someone as goofy as Huckabee can win the nomination but then I remember who's in the White House.
Finally, there's Ron Paul. He'll attract a lot of support from outside the traditional Republican base. He has a lot of internet support but I'm not so sure he can translate that into a good organization in the early primary states and get his supporters to actually vote in the Republican primary.
Sometime next year if the Republican nominee is looking very weak, and the Democratic nominee is someone major corporate donors don't think they can work with, then look for a push to get a third party candidate like Michael Bloomberg or Chuck Hagel to enter the race. Corporate special interests have been doing very well for the last 7 years and they won't give that up too easily.
Ok, that's my take on it. If you think I'm completely wrong then tell me why!