Clinton Iowa
I'm in Clinton Iowa to volunteer for Obama on caucus day. I'll be heading to the local campaign office pretty soon.
I'm watching the TV news shows and another Clinton surrogate is telling us why it wouldn't be so bad for Hillary to lose Iowa. I heard James Carville say the same thing on Meet the Press about six months ago. The Clinton campaign has known for a long time that they're going to struggle in Iowa and they've been playing the expectations game well. They don't want a repeat of the Dean disaster where the so-called front runner is derailed by coming in third in Iowa.
I predicted months ago that Clinton will finish third in Iowa and I still expect that. I suspect the Clinton campaign would be happy with an Edwards win in Iowa because it will keep the progressive and anti-Hillary vote divided two ways through February 5 if Edwards stays in the race.
Kucinich announced that he's encouraging his supporters to pick Obama as a second choice in the caucus where Dennis isn't viable. He did the same thing for Edwards in 2004 and most Kucinich supporters I know had been leaning toward Edwards as their second choice. If Kucinich supporters in Iowa hear the news and take the advice it will seal a victory for Obama.
I worked on Kucinich's campaign staff last time and I believe Obama is the natural alternative for people looking for someone who can run a winning campaign on progressive values this time around. I'm glad to see Kucinich agree with me at least to some extent.
The Huckabee-Romney competition is a grudge match 160 years in the making. Southern Baptist ministers were in the mobs that drove Mormons out of Missouri in the 1830's and Illinois in the 1840's. Things have gotten nasty in Iowa. I think Romney has the religious advantage since he belongs to a church full of people who have spent two years of their lives knocking on doors in bad weather. But who knows.
I'll write about what happens when I get home.